The man scoring that goal helped Newcastle United move to 4^th place in the Premier League on Wednesday night – enough to qualify them for next season’s Champions League (should Chelsea lose in Munich at the end of May).

It’s nearly a decade since Newcastle United were last in the Champions League. You’d be fair to assume it’s been that long since we last reported on the Kantar Media Premiership. Not quite. But a lot has happened – in real-life and in fantasy land – and we wanted to nip in with a post on what to expect between now and the season end…

Real-life first. By about 17:00 on Sunday 13^th Man City will be crowned Champions. You’re probably wondering how we know that. Wonder no more. They’ve overcome a dip in form which had threatened to ruin all the groundwork they had put in up until about March, and the return of this guy has –  somewhat romantically and somewhat annoyingly –  seemed to spark the revival. The win over Man United on Monday means they head into the final two games in pole position; win both those games and they’re Champions.

Newcastle, chasing the Champions League, are the only team who can alter this path when they host Man City on Sunday. They’re trying to fight off Tottenham, who are level on points, for 4^th place, and Chelsea, who have an FA Cup Final and Champions League final for distraction. And actually, Arsenal’s hold on third is not guaranteed – they go to West Brom on the last day, a team and a ground that aren’t always as accommodating as they’d like.

The scrap to stay up will probably be more exciting. Since we last reported, Wolves have gone and there’s a shortlist of 5 teams who could be joining them. Wigan, with memorable wins over Man Utd, Arsenal and Newcastle, seem like they’ve done enough, particularly given that they will face a down beaten Wolves on the last day. Their other game is against Blackburn, who are still 3 points from safety and who will need to pull off a miracle at Chelsea on the final day to ensure survival. Bolton and QPR will face off for 17^th; put your money on Bolton – QPR travel to Man City on the final day.  Aston Villa have been drab all season long but won’t be dragged into it.

This frenzy over the next 2 weeks means there are lots of points up for grabs in the final two fantasy gameweeks. And there are plenty who will be chasing them. Stephen Callow’s wevewonitfivetimes probably won’t be. He’s been on top for most of the season and is now 209 points clear at the top. Providing there isn’t mammoth scoring week like there was last week, he’s got the league wrapped up.

Trying to ruin that will be Kantar Media’s Jonathan Brown. Even with a Rubbish team he’s managed to work his way up to 2^nd place thanks to some shrewd captain choices over the past few weeks. Only 100 points separate Ruina Eam in 3^rd and Jefford’s Giants in 13^th. It’s been a sorry slip for Mark Jefford – look back at the table in Gameweek 12 and you’ll see him on top. Danny Kay is another one who has found the run-in tough; earlier in the season he looked to be Kantar Media’s only hope for a top 5 place – he’s now languishing in 20^th. And Chris Branford’s Terminal Decline, after showing great promise, have finally lived up to their name, and now sit in 25^th heading into the final 2 gameweeks.

So unfortunately, thanks to wevewonitfivetimes, we won’t get the photo-finish we’d hope – not for top-spot, anyway. Because there’s a lot to play for elsewhere, and I’m sure teams have got their own personal rivalries that are still to be resolved. The Killer Bees of W9, for instance, are rock-bottom, and their manager, Charlie Gordon, is set to be declared the worst (ahem) manager at Kantar Media. But Jennie Beck, Sara Reid and Karen Alexander are within a strong gameweek’s reach, so the season isn’t over for him yet. The tension will be similar at S4C – Chris Morris and Huw Jones both scored 91 points last week, and with Huw’s Swans Flying High only 20 points ahead of Chris’ Brian Munich, I wouldn’t want to be sat between them right now. The NMA, too, have an internal battle going on, with Andrew Moffat’s Newspaper Detectives leading Henry Vernon’s Henry’s Heroes by just 24 points – as RvP has shown on multiple occasions this season, that’s a point difference just one player can overturn.

And so you should get selecting. Make sure to use transfers wisely – and use your wildcards if you haven’t already; there are no bonus points for having them in stock at the end of the season. My tip (not that 24^th warrants me to give you one) is to get/keep Aguero in your team – he’ll score at least 4 over these last 2 games.

Good luck.

London, 1^st May 2012 – Most people in Britain with a connected TV actually lead a very disconnected TV existence, reveals newly released insight from Kantar Media’s futurePROOF study of consumer take up and usage of digital devices and media.

As a platform, connected TV is now well established, but Kantar Media’s research highlights that fewer than one in five adults in Britain (17%) have an ‘internet ready’ TV set. Furthermore, connectivity is not a key driver of the purchase of connected TV sets, with only 7% of adults owning a connected TV which they have actually connected to the internet in some way.

Indeed, motivations for purchasing connected TVs are largely focused on traditional drivers, such as screen size and picture quality, rather than connectivity. More than one in three adults (36%) simply do not see the point of accessing the internet through a TV set.

A perceived lack of comprehensive content presents one of the major barriers to greater connected TV usage. There is also a general lack of awareness of the services that are available and the advantages of accessing them via a main TV set. For users of connected TV, functionality, having to use the remote as a web input device, the absence of some major broadcasters and the loading time of apps are all common complaints. But, it is the irritation of ‘buffering’ when trying to watch a show through the broadband connection that causes greatest disillusionment for connected TV users.

Connected TV is seen most positively for services that harness the benefits of the living room setting. Kantar Media’s futurePROOF study reveals that four in ten people with a TV connected to the internet have watched TV programmes or films on demand through it in the last month. Similarly, video-based content that exploits the large screen is a real draw. This includes accessing YouTube content (done by 53% of connected TV viewers) and apps such as Skype, which can bring distant loved ones into the living room to be seen by the whole family.

Trevor Vagg, Director, Kantar Media Custom, comments:  “Our qualitative research identified a clear desire in connected TV households to make fuller use of the technology. However, it looks like development of connected TV will be more evolution than revolution with content availability, functionality and broadband speeds presenting significant obstacles to greater usage.”

“Promotion of internet video content that harnesses the strengths of the main TV and its setting will be key to growth, as will a more effective input device and a user interface that matches the user experience found on other web devices.”

“Currently, the connected TV user experience is, in many respects, analogous with the early days of WAP mobiles. The experience doesn’t match the promise of full internet connectivity via your TV. But it will come. There is clear potential for growth if manufacturers and content providers can overcome consumers’ current frustrations.”

Research methodology

The futurePROOF study is focused on adults (aged 16+) in Great Britain. Released bi-annually, it provides a snapshot of technology ownership and usage of digital media. A total of 2,062 people from Kantar Media’s TGI database took part via telephone. Fieldwork took place in February 2012. In addition, 6 in-home ethnographic interviews in connected TV households took place in March 2012.

For more information, please visit www.kantarmedia-custom.com

The new insights reveal that 12% of those polled read the first issue of The Sun on Sunday – a similar proportion of adults in Britain who read the News of the World during its final weeks.

However, just 38% of former News of the World readers picked up the first issue of The Sun on Sunday.

In the immediate aftermath of the News of the World’s closure, similar research from Kantar Media suggested that the vast majority (86%) of their readers would choose another title, rather than dropping out of the market altogether.

The evidence from Kantar Media’s latest survey indicates that many of these former NOTW readers are returning to the News International stable. Of those who were News of the World readers but have since read the Sunday Mirror – 49% read the first issue of the Sun on Sunday. One in three readers of The People also read the Sun on Sunday in its first week along with 26% of readers of the Daily Star on Sunday.

 Although official ABC figures are yet to be released, Rupert Murdoch announced via Twitter that the first issue of the Sun on Sunday sold more than 3.2 million copies. Subsequently he tweeted “What will second Sunday edition of Sun sell? My guess down fifteen per cent would be a great result”. The Kantar Media poll reveals that he may not be too far off as 85% of those who read the paper in its first outing said they will likely read again the following week.

Very early industry estimates put sales of the second issue, 17% down on its first week.

However, despite stealing a march on some of its rivals, the data suggests that the outlook for The Sun on Sunday is not wholly positive. Almost a quarter (23%) of all Sunday newspaper readers surveyed agreed that News International’s latest offering will become their main Sunday newspaper.

This rises to almost 60% among those who read the Sun on Sunday in its first week but it may take longer, however, to win back former News of the World readers on a permanent basis.

Fewer than half (44%) of former News of the World readers agreed that The Sun on Sunday will become their main newspaper, almost 40% remain undecided.

This is the same proportion of former News of the World readers who also agree that “The phone hacking scandal has made me more negative towards The Sun”.

If the Sun on Sunday is to be a long-term success beyond the high figures achieved following its launch, convincing the undecided former News of the World readers will be crucial. It remains to be seen whether the competitive cover pricing and multiplatform advertising campaign will be enough to win-over these readers beyond the first few issues.     

Research methodology

A representative sample of 1,028 adults took part in an online survey conducted by Kantar Media between February 28^th and March 1^st 2012. A reader was defined as those who have read a Sunday newspaper for at least two minutes in the last four weeks.  The survey data were weighted to match the profile of GB Sunday newspaper readers (Almost Always or Quite Often) as determined by NRS.

Given the explosion in methods of accessing the internet through tablets, smartphones, games consoles, and televisions there is certainly less reliance on the desktop computer.

Indeed Apple’s Quarter 4 results revealed a record breaking swell of revenue coming from non-pc products, notably iPads and iPhones, exceeding even their own sales forecasts. Similarly, Google’s Android is making some serious inroads into the smart device world. Globally, it accounts for around half of the smartphone market (though Kantar’s US Worldpanel data shows that, coinciding with their Q4 boom, Apple has just taken the lead in the ‘States in the run up to Christmas).

Thanks to the impressive sales of the Kindle fire, Android now makes up 39% of tablet sales too. Results released last week indicate that global tablet sales for 2011 exceeded 66.9 million, up 260% from 2010’s numbers and the growth is likely to continue into 2012. Interestingly, Deloitte predict that 5% of tablet owners, in 2012, will own multiple tablet devices.

Whilst these increases are undoubtedly impressive, tablets do however still remain a relatively niche product.

Tablets are not the only means of accessing the internet in an always-on post-pc world. Recent research from Google shows 45% of the UK population now have a smartphone and this is backed up by new proprietary research from Kantar Media which indicates that smartphone penetration exceeds 50% of urban audiences in the UK, something that is anticipated to continue growing through 2012.

At last week’s MPMIS conference, ESPN further underlined the importance of the mobile market with the bold claim that in 2012 they would be treating the mobile as the first screen.

In addition to smartphones and tablets, games are increasingly played online. The Gaming Britain study conducted by Kantar Media for the IAB indicates that 34% of the UK population have played games on a PC or laptop in the last six months (42% have done so using a mobile phone). Then there are streaming media services which connect the internet to various other devices including the television. Amazon-owned Lovefilm offer their streaming services across various devices and the recent arrival of Netflix in the UK is further evidence that this is an area of huge potential growth through 2012.

This brings us to the area of connected TV. Although still in its infancy, research suggests that 90% of televisions will be connected to the internet by 2014 so this is likely to strike yet another blow for the desktop computer.

Given the enormous potential importance of connected TV, Kantar Media is leveraging key data from its futurePROOF study into take-up and usage of digital devices and media to provide further insight into this burgeoning area. A deep dive initiative into connected TV called TVolution will provide subscribers with a regularly updated snapshot of TV-related technology ownership among the British adult population, linked to Kantar Media’s TGI study. The first results of this study are due in Q2 of 2012.

So what does all this mean for the humble PC? Calling time on the desktop seems a little premature, although signals that the PC bubble may have burst are starting to emerge. Gartner analysis on the PC market shows that PC shipments in the US declined by 1.4% in Q4 2011 and are expected to slow more significantly through 2012.

Smartphones and new upstarts such as tablets are undoubtedly making waves and perhaps rightfully hogging the press column inches whilst at the same time enabling digital natives to access the web 24/7. The humble PC will remain an important player in the mainstream connected world through 2012 though for how much longer beyond this remains to be seen.

Perhaps a more PC line on the subject is that the desktop is not dead, but there is a suggestion that glory days may be gone.

Euan Mackay
Senior Associate Director, Kantar Media Custom

http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/telecoms-research/filesharing/kantar.pdf

Best Overall Paper was awarded to Peter Callius, Senior Advisor at Kantar Media Sweden and Peter Masson from Masson and Bucknull, UK.

The paper, entitled ‘If You Build It, Will They Come?’, examines developments in multimedia planning and the benefits and challenges for media planners. The paper also won the award for Best Presentation.

Andy Brown, Chairman of Kantar Media commented, “We’re delighted and extremely proud at having received these accolades at what is regarded as one of the industry’s most prestigious events. They highlight Kantar’s hard work and continual dedication towards cementing its expertise in print, readership and digital media research throughout the global industry.”

This year Kantar Media also received runner-up accolades for Best Presentation with ‘Creative Benchmarking: A new answer to an old question’ by Liz McMahon, Head of UK Custom; and ‘UGC: Friend or Foe?’ by Geoff Wicken, Head of TGI International. In addition, the runner-up for the Chairman’s Prize was given to ‘Linking Website Exposure Data to Survey Data’ by Jayne Krahn, Kantar Media  and Jeff Landi, Safecount.

The top two awards were also won by Kantar Media in 2009.

About the Print and Digital Research Forum

The biennial session took place this year from 10-13 October. It provides a global forum for advertising agencies, publishers, industry bodies and researcher and software providers to share expertise and develop credible business models based on thorough research papers.  It attracts leading professionals on research in the print and digital readership industry.

The Forum continues in the tradition of its forerunner, the Worldwide Readership Research Symposium, whose first Symposium was held in 1981. The organisation is not-for-profit. This year’s Print and Digital Research Forum was attended by 155 delegates from 27 countries and 55 papers were discussed and evaluated during the event.

About Kantar Media

Kantar Media provides strategic advice and competitive intelligence to the world’s leading brands, publishers and agencies, helping them navigate and succeed in a rapidly evolving media industry. This includes analysis of paid media opportunities; counsel on brand reputation, corporate management and consumer engagement through owned media; and, evaluating consumers’ reactions in earned media.  Kantar Media provides clients with a broad range of insights, from audience research, competitive intelligence, vital consumer behaviour and digital insightsto marketing effectiveness and online influence. Our experts currently work with 22,000 companies tracking 3 million brands in 50 countries.

There was yet another international break on the weekend that followed, where England managed to surrender a two-goal lead to Montenegro but still qualify for Euro 2012.  Pointless, really, because we know what will happen.

Gameweek 8 wasn’t great and was lucky to have followed an International break. Man City won easily again, Chelsea beat Everton and at Anfield, Liverpool and Man Utd played out a bore-draw.

In Gamweek 9 there was a phenomenon. There was another shock at Loftus Road, where QPR scraped a win against Chelsea, who had two men sent off, and one man who represents everything that is wrong with English football.

In Gameweek 10, Arsenal fans were happy – this was why. An early call, but it’ll most likely take game of the season. The Gameweek finished with Newcastle winning at Stoke, thus extending their unbeaten opening to this campaign, and leapfrogging Chelsea into third in the process. Well done, but it’s potently clear they’ll come crashing down soon.

So another entertaining month in real life – but did it transpire in Fantasy world?

The answer is ‘maybe’ – my records of the league standings in Gameweek 7 and 8 were somehow lost (or stolen). Apologies to anyone who took big steps in these weeks. One thing we can assume without a reference-point, though, is that bottom place was filled by its rightful owner*.

Luckily Gameweeks 9 and 10 were the more entertaining of the month. In Gameweek 9 Chris Branford was Terminal Decline by name but not by nature – rising all the way to top spot after joint-top scoring with Julie Forey’s Dodgy Knees (not literal). Towards the bottom, Kantar Media’s Euan Mackay, Charlie Gordon and Graeme Griffiths all gained ground – but all still remained at least 100 points off top spot.

Gameweek 10 saw Stephen Callow’s wevewonitfivetimes reclaim pole position – thanks largely to the excellent Robin Van Persie. Gentel FC, who finished September on top spot, are now down to 8^th, seemingly suffering the effects of a quiet Wayne Rooney. Danny Kay caused a stir after moving into third place – the first time that Kantar Media have held a position in the top 3 since Trevor Vagg dropped from first in September. Keep an eye on Channel 4’s Nick Blake, too, whose Blake Panthers have moved up 10 places in the space of a month, and are now within 9 points of the top.

In September James Burke took the crown for the month’s highest scorer. Different story this time round – Sky’s Ian McDougall, who guided his Jimmy Buzzard XI to 222 points across October. That has earned him a place in the top 10 – a huge improvement from 33^rd at the end of September.

So, October did enough to cause havoc across the Kantar Media Premiership – even if the usual high-flyers are still… well, flying high. There are just three Gameweeks in November so it’s unlikely we’ll see the same level of movement but I’m sure something will change. And in fact, my parting tip for November is to consider Fernando Torres in Gameweek 12 – his former Liverpool side visit Stamford Bridge that week, so what better way to end his scoring drought than against them.

Good Luck.

*Wilshee Win? subsequently escaped bottom spot in Gameweek 10 at the expense of Jennie Beck’s (even grumpier) Grumpy Global

Just as interesting was September in the Premier League. The international break at the start of the month meant we had to wait a while to see some games, but when we did, it was business as usual – for Man Utd and Man City, at least, who both picked up from where they left off with big wins.

Not quite business as usual at the Emirates though, where Arsenal actually managed (to scrape) a first league win of the season – an improvement, definitely, but fans knew better than to get ahead of themselves after the Old Trafford nightmare a fortnight earlier.

And how right they were to stay reserved . That same weekend saw Man Utd prove that there is a definite gulf between them and Chelsea – helped just a smidgen by that Torres miss. And on the same day, Man City drew away at Fulham, thereby losing the “who’ll-slip-up-first?” battle of Manchester, and giving Utd a leg-up to the top of the league.

Luckily, though, the Premier League is good at making things complicated – cue Crouch and co, who held Utd 1-1 at the Britannia a week later. Naturally, Man City (before their Bayern Munich Teveztation) won their match, and it was all square again. There were convincing wins too for Chelsea and Arsenal (what the hell?).

So, September ended with Manchester ruling – and sharing – the roost. But September threw up a couple of other interestingtons: Newcastle and Bolton. Basically, one was good and one was bad; but the reason this is interesting is because you’d imagine that the good one would be the one you thought would be good, and the one who was bad would be the other one – but it turned out that it was the other one that was good, meaning they were actually the bad one. Too many ones? Here’s a two.

So an interesting (and confusing, apparently) month in the Premier League. And things weren’t entirely straightforward in Fantasyland either. As expected, there was plenty of transfer activity after the (real) window had shut: people seemed keen on Parker after he’d (foolishly) gone to Spurs, and Crouch once he’d (reluctantly) headed to Stoke. Barton going to QPR was popular too. Not so much buzz around Arsenal’s acquisitions though (except maybe Arteta).

But I bet what you really want to know is who the movers and shakers were? Well, after ending August on top spot, NMA’s Henry Vernon was down to 3rd in Gameweek 4, as Gareth Barr of BBC Trust continued his impressive August form to take pole position – helped a lot by a shrewd vice-captain choice in the hat-trick scoring Wayne Rooney (Dzeko didn’t feature that week). This first round of September matches were also kind to Alfredo Raydha, whose Gentel FC shot up to 2nd after posting a score of 83 – beaten only by Andrew Moffat of the NMA.

Gameweek 5 was capitalised on by Shortlist’s Mark Jefford, whose 69 points propelled him from 15th to 5th; Simon Johnson, of RSMB, top-scored with 70 to move from 9th to 2nd. As a comparison, Kantar Media’s Rachel Willshee scored a massive 9. Willshee win? No.

After that surprising Gameweek 6 (remember – when Arsenal were convincing and Man Utd drew), the league now looks in familiar shape. Slowly but surely, that familiar shape is becoming defined by Kantar Media’s managers* showing exactly what is meant by a “mid-table” team.

But there’s a bit of hope inside these walls: filter the league on only September’s results, and who do you find at the top? Our very own James Burke. If that isn’t enough to spur you on for the rest of October, I don’t know what will.

Good luck…

* Fantasy League managers, not actual managers (just in case…)

To Pay Or Not To Pay

The fully refurbished site was always going to make managers a little wary. By the evening of Friday 12th, faced with a login page that just wouldn’t budge, the doubters were proved right – but I’m betting the reactions went a little further than ‘I told you so’.

As it was, selections in Gameweek 1 weren’t necessarily the conscious pick of managers, and, insane computer killing or not, everyone agreed it just wasn’t good enough. FPL knew this and gave us their heartfelt apology – and what a truly sincere one it was. Of course, as glory-hunting FPL managers we’re trained not to appreciate this kind of sentiment. Nope, we’re just after the compensation. And we got it: unlimited free transfers for Gameweek 2.

But not everyone could take advantage. The average points scored across every FPL user for Gameweek 2 actually dropped from Gameweek 1 – a trend that most of the Kantar Media Premiership suffered too. Let’s just blame that on silly results like the QPR away win – or the even sillier Arsenal defeat to Liverpool.

That lovely FPL apology also offered leagues a fresh start, the chance to scrap the scoring of Gameweek 1 and start afresh from Gameweek 2. We toyed with doing this but guessed that were more folk who had constructed their team prior to the site crashing (and probably even more who hadn’t even noticed!) than those who were left incredibly frustrated.

The drama continued into Gameweek 3, which will be remembered for that result. You’d 8-2 be a Gunner at a time like this; but this is all about the KMP, and this match (plus others) added a bit of a twist to the league. BBC Trust’s Gareth Barr profited most, posting the league’s first 3 digit score – a perfectly crisp 100 points – and overtaking Simon Johnson of RSMB in the process. If you’re wondering how Gareth did that, here are the maths he used: Rooney (c) + Dzeko. God help the rest of us if he’d chosen Ashley Young ahead of Nani.
Gareth’s superweek was impressive but it couldn’t knock the NMA’s Henry Vernon off of the summit. Henry will be glad he side-stepped the turmoil of Gameweek 1 when he scored 80 points, because since then his score has gradually dropped – a dangerous slip in form when you’ve got The Guardian’s Dan Botten and Peter Gradidge of Associated waiting in the wings.

Kantar Media’s Trevor Vagg is going through a similarly tough time after occupying top spot for a short while in Gameweek 1. He dropped places like most of the Kantar Media clan did this week; something in the water, I imagine. Either that or we just don’t know football like we thought we did – #shouldsticktomedia.

If the drama has left you dazed, don’t rest up now, because there’s plenty more on the way for September. True, we start with an International break, but this just means managers get plenty of time to think about what Transfer Deadline Day signings they think are worth adding, and how best to get rid of those who have ended up being shipped off abroad. Be ready to see this turn into a flurry of Wildcards being played. If you’re thinking of playing a Wildcard, though, remember one thing: it’s a marathon – not a sprint.

Good luck!